The latest on UK gov. strategy for covid-19 – Guinea Pig UK

Sorry. Very short of time but check this:

Sir Patrick Vallance, said he thinks coronavirus is likely to become an annual virus.

The chief scientific adviser told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the government’s approach wass about lowering and extending the peak of the epidemic and developing immunity among the population.

“What we don’t want is everybody to end up getting it in a short period of time so we swamp and overwhelm NHS services – that’s the flattening of the peak,” he said.

“You can’t stop it, so you should end up with a broader peak during which time you’d anticipate that more people would get immunity to this. That in itself becomes a protective part of this process.

“This is quite likely, I think, to become an annual virus, an annual seasonal infection.” [1]

Vallance has the habit of letting the cat out of the bag and here he is again. Why introduce quarantine measures which will harm profits/the economy when it will be back again next year? Better to let immunity develop in the population and thus steal a march on our European competitors.

Here is Patrick Vallance blithely explaining that the plan is to allow 60% of the population to get the virus in order to build up “herd immunity”.

This is a gigantic experiment based on a guess. Many elderly people are not going to develop immunity – they are going to die. And even those that do may find it of no value as the virus may simply mutate as flu does. To be clear; the ‘herd immunity’ plan depends on an assumption that it is possible to acquire permanent immunity to covid-19. This is an assumption, even a guess; there is no scientific evidence for this. This is beyond a joke. Again; why is the media not up in arms about this?

The scientific plan the rest of the world is operating to is to limit and slow the virus while either a vaccine or antiviral drugs can be developed. This is the rational basis on which other countries are trying to take immediate steps to limit the epidemic in their country right now. Of course this approach is also not free of problems; maybe no successful vaccine will be found and/or if it is there is still the mutation problem. But this is a realistic and conservative plan in contrast to the UK’s wild gamble.

Patrick Vallance explicitly says that for his plan to work 60% of the population need to catch coronavirus. Even at the most conservative mortality rate of 1% (remember the crude mortality rate for Italy is now 6%) this means that .6 x 66 000 000 x 0.01 people will die in the UK this year.  That’s 396,000 people! At the most conservative estimate.

Let’s hope Vallance’s unscientific and lunatic plan fails. That in a couple of weeks faced with  a rising death toll the government backtracks and institutes the kind of control measures recommended by the WHO.

Notes

  1. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-live-uk-update-cases-symptoms-testing-death-toll-a9399016.html

Author: justinwyllie

EFL Teacher and Photographer