A recipe for war

In 2014 the EU and the US supported a ‘revolution’ in Ukraine. They produced a fanciful narrative about Ukrainians yearning to join the EU. The US was a bit off-tune with the “fuck the EU” comment [1] – they wanted to fix Ukraine themselves – but everyone agreed that the violent overthrow of the elected government of Viktor Yanukovych was a blow for freedom and democracy.

There was a Presidential election scheduled in Ukraine for 2015. The Western sponsors of the ‘revolution’ have never offered an explanation why their penchant for democracy did not extend to telling the rioters in Maidan Square in Kiev to wait for the election. Some of the Ukrainians demonstrating and rioting in Maidan wanted to tilt Ukraine towards the EU and NATO. Others wanted to be free of Russian influence but not under the EU either. And in the East and South of Ukraine -many want nothing to do with either  the EU or NATO. In fact very nearly 50% of Ukrainians live in regions where support for joining the EU is less than 30%. [2] One system for dividing up a map of Ukraine is to divide it into 5 regions. This is the system used by the 2014 Gallup poll on Ukraine. On this basis in only 2 out of the 5 regions of Ukraine is there a majority in favour of joining the EU.

So. When the EU says things like “TAKING INTO ACCOUNT the strong public support in Ukraine for the country’s European choice” [3] – they are lying. They are lying to themselves. They are lying to their citizens. And, not least, they are lying to Ukrainians. There has been no choice by Ukraine “for Europe”. This is a lie which is retold by almost every single “journalist” writing in the UK press about Ukraine and Russia. (Actually we can analyse this interesting statement which appears in the official EU Ukraine Association Agreement. Notice that the “country’s European choice” is something which the public in Ukraine supports – so, in fact, it was not their choice.  This reflects – albeit accidentally the truth – the EU has made the choice for Ukraine. Subsequently they claim that this choice has “strong public support”).

The truth – and this could be checked by any journalist in 5 minutes – is that Ukraine is a fractured country. Some Ukrainians do indeed look to the EU. Millions don’t. This information comes from Gallup – a US polling organisation – so they can hardly say it is “Russian misinformation”. If a journalist had a few spare hours they could so some background reading on the history of this part of the world and they would understand how and why Ukraine is a fractured country – with some Ukrainians leaning West and others East – and others preferring neither.

The claims about “Ukraine’s choice for Europe” are taken as true and repeated by Western politicians and “journalists” ad nauseum. This is simply a tactic to establish “truth” by a process of repetition.

The whole of the EU strategy for Ukraine is based on an easily checkable lie. Thousands of people including children have died in the conflict in the East of Ukraine as a direct result of this strategy.  This is how modern EU politicians conduct foreign policy. Ideas made at the level of babies – and backed up by all the machinery of modern warfare.

The danger here is specific. Russia has a natural interest in supporting the people in the East of Ukraine who are being steamrolled into the EU against their democratic and political will (expressed for example in the fact that the party of the disposed Yanukovych was most strongly supported in the East). Currently Russia is opting to support a political resolution of this crisis. But if Kiev pushes outside of the Minsk framework Russia may well intervene directly.

The situation is Crimea is also fraught. The same Gallup poll [2] completely confirms the results of the 2014 vote to rejoin Russia – Western politicians/media can pretend that the election was rigged or carried on “at the point of a Kalashnikov” but in fact reputable Western polling organisations time and time again confirm the 80% result [4]. Again – and even more so than in the East of Ukraine – Russia will not take kindly to provocations from Kiev.

Meanwhile the West – the US and the UK being at the forefront as usual [5] – is feeding the regime in Kiev with arms and training. The message to Kiev must certainly be that the West will support them in some military adventure.

This space is very dangerous. The false policy of the West based as it is on a complete fiction may yet come very unstuck.

Notes

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CL_GShyGv3o

2. Gallup Poll conducted 2014. Support for joining EU (figures rounded):

West – 84%

Centre – 43%

North – 60%

South – 27%

East – 19%

Population of Ukraine: 42.5 million

Population of Eastern region in Gallup poll: approx 11 million *

Population of Southern region in Gallup poll: approx 9.7 million *

  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Administrative_divisions_of_Ukraine – to get these figures I have had to map an umarked map from the Gallup poll onto demographic indications in the above Wikipedia article. There is some discussion over what provinces of Ukraine are included in ‘Eastern’ and ‘Southern’ divisions and it isn’t clear which system Gallup had in mind. However; even if I am out by a million or so the fact remains that in the Southern and Eastern regions – where there is only minority support for joining the EU – live

3. EU Ukraine Association Agreement

4. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/03/20/one-year-after-russia-annexed-crimea-locals-prefer-moscow-to-kiev/#4719d665510d

5. https://abcnews.go.com/beta-story-container/International/us-announces-sale-anti-tank-missiles-ukraine-russian/story?id=53450406

https://www.forces.net/news/defence-secretary-commits-extra-british-troops-ukraine

 

Author: justinwyllie

EFL Teacher and Photographer