Russia to invade Poland?

Here is SkyNews with a delusional headline:

Poland Rearms as fears of Russian attack grows

The article mentions that Poland is increasing its defence spending and that people are signing up for militia training.

The text includes a sentence;

Logically, an attack on Poland – a permanent member of NATO – remains extremely unlikely, but it does not feel quite as unthinkable to people here.

It isn’t clear what “logic” has to do with this. Whether or not Russia is contemplating invading Poland is a matter of historical and political judgement (or military intelligence). Anyway it is re-assuring that Ms Stallard, Sky’s Russia correspondent in Poland, feels able to tell her readers that Russia invading Poland “remains extremely unlikely”. Thank heavens!

This senseless and absurd promotion of a Russian plan to “invade” the Baltic states and Poland can only come from two possible bases: these people are simply delusional. They lack any capacity for political analysis. They really do interpret Russia’s “annexation” of Crimea as a spontaneous act of aggression. (They have no grasp of the context: the history of Ukraine which for the whole of the last century evidenced divisions between a pro-European West and a Russian-leaning East, the EU forcing Ukraine to choose between Russia and the EU, a subsequent coup, the political disenfranchisement of people in the East of Ukraine who did not take part in the coup and who had voted in large numbers for the deposed President, the massively popular vote by Crimeans to re-unite with Russia, [1] etc.). Or; they realise all this but are all (press included) involved in an orchestrated campaign to talk up the “Russian threat”.

Are these people, press included, delusional or conniving?

Journalists like the author of this piece are probably not doing much more than demonstrating that in life plenty of people locate the nearest form of strong power and blindly and willingly submit to it in the hope of protection. Perhaps history has always been like this. Probably a member of a Bronze age tribe automatically affirmed that everything their warrior leaders did and said was 100% right and proper. It just looks a bit odd to see such supine behaviour in a world of freely available higher education, accessible international travel, and freely available information.

The people who one has to wonder at a little more are people like, for example Britain’s Defence Secretary Philip Hammond, or the NATO Secretary General Jan Stoltenberg. Do these people really believe in the tale of Russian aggression? Can they really not look at the political and historical background to the Ukraine crisis and see that just maybe it is a little bit more complex than a story about peaceful protesters, and a resurgent Russia trying to relive the glory days of Soviet Power? – Strangely and notably if you query the speeches of these people they don’t offer a rational reason why Russia may have aggressively “invaded” Ukraine and “annexed” Crimea as part of a wider pattern of “aggression” against ex-Soviet states. With these people therefore there must be a little doubt as to

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